11.04.2018

Investa cup Week 3-5

For the past few weeks, life has caught up to me a bit. Been busy handling some stuff for business and the little robot's school. This has caused me to lose a bit of focus on the investacup. 



Then VUL happened as well. Since it was an all time high breakout (Figure 1), I made sure to have shares in my real port as well. 


Figure 1

Everything looked ready for a good, nice uptrend. Was thinking that it could follow the ATN script where it was wicky and weak before the ATH break but after the ATH breakout it would transition into a monster. 

However, Ms Market had other plans and gave a big steaming pile of crap the next day (Figure 2) 


Figure 2

Since I was too focused on my real port during this breakdown, I made sure to sell my shares there first before even remembering my VUL shares in my investacup port. Sold most of them at the lows. Awesome job to me. YEY!

A couple of other bone headed moves trading all time lows like CHP, CLC torpedoed my ranking.



Was already thinking of calling it quits sometime during week 5, but I wanted to give it another shot. I recalled the reason why I was doing the competition, which was to grade myself against other traders while trading mostly downtrending stocks. What better way to do paper trading then during a bear market right? 

So back to the grind it was. 

The thing that most people fail to realize about trading is that it gets repetitive after some time. It's all about doing the same thing, again and again and again. You can do multiple trades using the same setup. No need to overcomplicate things. 

Case in point, this setup that presented itself with X (Figure 3). It's looked almost exactly the same to the previous two CHP trades I had. 


Figure 3

The natural progression for me after collecting data on a particular setup, is to trade it with small volume. This will help to give me a feel of the trade with real money. The ultimate goal of course, is to move from small volume to real trading with conviction volume. Conviction volume doesn't necessarily mean all ins, it just means that there is enough meat to the trade that it would justify you doing all that studying and learning for it to actually make a dent in your portfolio. Otherwise, what is the point in studying that particular setup at all? 

So anyway, X was able to boost my investa ranking again (Figure 4) but I failed to take into consideration one of the new rules in the competition. 

Figure 4

And that was you are only allowed two sells to a particular stock when it is less than PHP3 in value. Long story short, my supposed intraday bounce trade for X got stuck (Figure 5). 


Figure 5
No choice but to watch it fall and hold on. Again, even more awesome job to me! DOUBLE YEY!

Ranking after week 5. 



It should have been somewhere in the 80s if the proper cut on my current X position but that's what I get for not being too focused on the rules. So I'm back to Milestone 1. Here's to another two months of the competition. 

10.13.2018

Investacup recap Week 3

Obviously the story of the week was $NOW.

From a high of 8.15, it fell all the way to 4.11. Then it gave several wonderful bounce plays in between. Within the tribe, there were numerous people who benefited from the volatility. Even in the investacup competition itself, there were people jumping ranks by the hundreds! For sure those contenders were able to ride the massive bounce plays. Kudos to everyone for being able to ride the waves!


Personally, I was not able to maximize the NOW bounce since I was away from the keyboard on both times that the bounces were materializing. When I got back to the computer, the price was already above the optimal buy point for me. So I just let it go and looked for something else.

Remember, the stock market is not like Pokemon. You don't have to catch them all. You can afford to let some of them go. 


With that in mind, my system selected several other stocks that were also ripe for bounces but would theoretically move in a much more controlled manner. When I say more controlled, the move wasn't supposed to be moving up and down 5-10% in a matter of minutes. Too much excitement for a virtual competition. My stock picks for the week were SECB, MWIDE and again, CHP. 

This week, I'll be focusing on CHP. AGAIN.

For some strange reason, it gave the exact same pattern during the morning of 10/12 (Figure 1).


Figure 1

Could it give the same result? Looks like it for now. We shall see what happens next week. I've placed my position (1.98 buying) and possible target prices (Figure 2). Those target prices are just there for my reference. I'm already prepared in case they don't reach them. Make your own plans.


Figure 2


Ranking after week 3. 






Milestone 1 achieved --> Don't be in the negative. 
Milestone 2 achieved -- > Be in the top 100.

Dare I try to reach Milestone 3? Be in the top 50?

The tricky part though is making sure that I don't go down in rank too much. EVERYTHING gets tougher from here on out. For sure all the traders in the upper echelon of the competition are all in a class by themselves. Just being in the top 100 is a win already in my books. 


10.07.2018

Investacup recap Week 2

The dynamics of the current competition is vastly different from the first Investacup competition. The first season had numerous uptrending stocks. Buy on breakouts, trend following was the name of the game.

This season the main theme is bounces. Everywhere you look there are downtrends galore. So it's more on buying on supports and bounces. It might be a downer for people but if we take it for what it is, it is an incredible opportunity to practice bounce plays. 

This week, let's focus on one particular trade:


CHP bounce

For this trade, I refer to one of boss Zee's previous trades (Figure 1). SSI 11/2015. 


Figure 1

That trade of his has always fascinated my processors because of it's execution and the percentage gained. So this pattern has been burned into my core memory and I swore to trade it everytime I see it. 

Enter CHP on Sept 28.

It made a similar cute candle after a strong downtrend. I entered near the close and identified two parameters seen in Figure 1. The TARGET and the CUT prices. Most people only create the former and forget about the latter. Rookie mistakes. 


Figure 2

The next day started out slowly. The price was hovering from 2.42-2.48 the whole day. Not bad if it was going to mimic the SSI pattern. As long as it closed above the close of 9/28 I would have been happy. 

But something peculiar happened. 

Right near the close at around 3pm, buying pressure suddenly increased and the price skyrocketed until the close. It closed at 2.7 just a few flucs away from my 1st target (Figure 3). 

I did a little quick math and thought that 2.7 was near enough to my target price and the way that the price moved during the close unnerved me a little. So I sold everything just to be on the safe side. The risk/reward wasn't worth it anymore. 



Figure 3

Since this was a virtual competition, it was easy to sell everything at the close. 



CHP helped a lot in boosting my ranking from negative to positive again. I had a couple of failed bounces again during the week but that's the way bounce plays go. 

Ranking after week 2.






Milestone 1 achieved --> Don't be in the negative. 
Here's to hoping I reach Milestone 2. Be in the top 100.

10.01.2018

Investacup recap Week 1



Here is my one word summary of the first week of the Investacup competition. 

TERRIBLE

My processors were scrambled adjusting to the max of 3 positions in the port. Every time I take a look and see extra cash, there was this tendency to look for something to buy. My usual strategy of adding to my current position couldn't work anymore. Also, the lack of having GTCs to wait for the price to hit my buys was a factor as well. Frustration was kicking in and that was a very bad sign.

So I immediately did a purge for a day. Sold all positions and looked inward. Took some time to reassess my system and strategy. Remembered that this was just the first week so there is still a lot of time to catch up. 

Question is, will I be able to make it? 


Ranking after week 1. 



9.10.2018

Focus on what is important


Some people question me why I choose to be a hands on parent to the little robot. Why not get a driver to pick her up at school? Get someone to look after her during the day time? So I can focus more of my time on trading.

I don't subscribe to that line of thinking. 

I admit, sometimes there is a twinge of regret when I can't execute during the times that I pick her up in the afternoon. But the feeling always disappear whenever we play our little games during her dismissal time. I would pretend to not see her coming out of class and always be surprised that she's already right beside me. Or we would play a game of chicken to see which one could spot the other first. Of course, I let her win all the time, because that's what parents do. The smiles that she gives me every time I pick her up always brighten up my day. 

Once she asked me what I do for work. I stopped cold in my tracks. How do you explain trading to a 7 year old? I mean, seriously, how would you do that? It's not glamorous or easy to explain unlike a chef, fireman, policeman or an astronaut. So I showed her my screen, with the orders and all. Opened up some charts and told her that they help me decide what to buy and sell.

White is good. Black is bad. W
e want white bars so we can sell it higher. 

I showed her some charts (funny line drawings she said) and told her about the movement of a stock.

With an extremely puzzled face, she stared at me then said OK daddy and left. Had a pretty good feeling that she didn't understand a word I said. 

After about a week, she gave me a drawing and said that this was her dream. She was sleeping in her room and there was a something about a kitty trapped in a heart or whatever and she saw some words on the wall. I kid you not, BID and ASK! 

BIDS and ASK!!!!!



Looks like there is a future for the little robot.

So to all those who are asking, I love my situation. I get to spend time with the two most important people in my life and even hit my year end milestones during the first half of the year. Even if I didn't trade until 2019 I would still be alright. I just made new ones to challenge myself more. The only reason I am still trading is because at this point in time it's already an addiction. To see how far I can push the envelope so to speak. I've even expanded my horizons and trying different markets.

Once you get past a certain amount in your income, not much will change any way. Having five million or ten won't matter. What matters most is how you live your life. Is it free of worries? Are you able to spend it with the people who matter the most? Are you able to make a difference in the world? That to me is the most important thing. 




8.27.2018

Beauty in simplicity: TBGI

I like to keep things simple

Whenever people ask me how I make my plans, on my buying and selling points, they would always be surprised by how simple it seems. Usually there are just one or two trigger points that I watch out for. 

You can see it in the charts I post. Minimal lines. Just one or two boxes at most. Sometimes none at all. Seeing too many lines just gives the impression of clutter and gives me a mental image of limiting a trade. Not giving it room to make it's move.

Yes, my plans are simple. But that does not necessarily mean that it is easy to implement. There is a big difference in the two. 

Take for example my recent TBGI trade. 

This entered into my personal scanner when it was making a tight range as shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1



My plan was just to buy when that yellow box breaks. So on Aug 2, I bought at around .58-.59 and had to cut when it didn't follow through at the end of the day.                  

So I adjusted my plan as shown in Figure 2. This time I moved the buying area to .60 since that was the high of Aug 2. 

Figure 2



So on Aug 3, the stock made a nice strong move again. I followed my plan and bought my shares at the .6 breakout point. All in one big tranche if I remember correctly. There was sufficient volume per fluc to accommodate a good enough size.  


Figure 3



When it closed strong but below the recent high of .66 I made a mental note to sell at .66 on the next day. That is unless it made a strong move and made a breakout above it. Happily it made a gap up move and I just switched tactics to trail stops. Keeping in mind that there was a bigger resistance at .84, I wanted to see if it had enough strength to reach and break it intraday. 

If it only made a breakout of .84, I would have added a new milestone of having a 7 digit day change in one port. But alas, it wasn't meant to be. I sold most of my shares at .78-.79. Not bad for a two day hold. 

8.01.2018

Caution is Essential

The past few months there has been a drought in breakouts. The usual breakout trader would be very very hard pressed to make some money. 

However, the market has given several wonderful bounce play scenarios. Granted, the bounce plays we are currently experiencing are very different in structure from the usual bounce plays. Those bounces came from a recently concluded super play or parabolic play vs the ones now which are in a downtrend. So the two bounce plays have vastly different rules on how to play them.

The previous paragraph highlights one of the more important things that most traders overlook when buying or selling stocks. The proper identification of plays will help to temper expectations. Bounce plays in an uptrend will always have more strength vs bounce plays in a downtrend. The same is true for breakouts. This is key in making successful trades.

Here are some recent examples:


DD 6/22/2018


This previously much loved stock has fallen into hard times in the past year and a half. It has been stuck in a slow downward spiral and has been looking for a significant bounce. For chartists, one reason for this could be because the prices were far from any strong supports. (Figure 1)


Figure 1

Now on this particular week, it suddenly picked up it's freefall to oblivion. It broke down from S1 and was going to hit S2 and maybe S3 as well. My sensors were screaming for me to place some orders since the opportunity was too good to pass up. 

Since S2 and S3 were also very near psychological supports of whole numbers, 21 and 20 respectively, this could be a good signal for bounce players to get in. During the morning, S2 seemed to have held and was showing that just maybe the selling was over. Several tranche buys were deployed near S2 and conveniently eaten up.


Figure 2

At the end of the morning session, the price rebounded very well and was moving according to plan (Figure 2). Since it already went up by a good percentage I set my initial tranche sells at 24, 24.5 and 25. In the afternoon session, only a partial shares of 24 were hit and the price seemed to be going back down. In normal instances, I would have held and waited EOD to see what would happen. But since the little robot's school already started again and her schedule has me away from the keyboard from 2pm to 3pm on this particular day, I had to make a change in strategy and changed my exit to a tactical one. 



Again, my confidence in these kinds of bounce plays is not that high yet so I cannot risk leaving my positions open especially when I cannot monitor them. So I sold it all at a much smaller gain than the one posted above. 

MWIDE 07/18/2018

This stock has been in a choppy uptrend and finally made some waterfalls since June. On this particular day, much like DD, it increased it's breakdown speed and even made an iZS on the weekly. However, it was seen to hit a particular support area as seen in Figure 1.


Figure 1

For me, this was a good place to put in my first tranche buy. Also, one scenario that my central processing unit came up with was it might make an iZS intraweek but close above the 100ma by end of week. Not a bad return if that does happen right? 


What more if it reaches the 20ma daily? Or even the 50ma weekly? Those are just some of the scenarios that were in my plans. Pretty good RRR I'd think.

Unfortunately, like the DD trade, I had to sell early because of the little robot's schedule. Though I wasn't able to maximize the profits on this trade, everything still went according to my scenario planning as seen in Figure 2.



Figure 2



Some people might say that I should have taken the risk and held on to my positions in the event that my plan did push through as what happened in the two instances. Yes, that could be true, but in the current market and my current situation, I was more inclined to err on the side of caution. 

These were new plays that were being incorporated into the system and the learning part was the most important thing for me. Any potential profit lost was acceptable since my processors need to get the required reps first to fully integrate it in my system.

Added bonus is having the peace of mind that I wasn't risking a lot while I couldn't monitor the stock movement properly. 

6.26.2018

Trade dissection: ISM

Welcome to another of my trade dissection posts. I'll try to post more of these in the future. Just need to make more trades that are worth dissecting.


First of all, I purposely didn't trade this during the time it was still in the yellow box (Figure 1). 

Why not? It's because I didn't understand the setup. I have a general rule of trading only something that I understand and know well.

Yes it was going to AOTS soon. But for me it could still trade within a range since it's too close to the identified recent resistance for me. The reward wasn't as good. So no trade yet however it was moved to my watchlist.

Figure 1

After breaking the identified resistance, I was waiting to see what it would do next. I made a box and visualized what it could do (Figure 2). My bias was it would go down and hit the box bottom and then make the next move up. Sort of like a breather so it can gain some more strength.

Figure 2 

This (Figure 3) was the reason why I was not convinced of it's move yet. Switching to the monthly chart, we can see that it seemed to hit the darvas and 100ma resistance.


Figure 3 

Aaaaand Ms market proved me wrong. As can be seen in Figure 4, it made a breakout from the identified box and would then be halted. I missed this trade because I was too focused on my bounce plays for that particular day (DD and VITA). No worries though, I know that if a stock is really good it would still give buying opportunities somewhere down the line. Just have to wait and make the necessary plans.

 Figure 4 

So what happened next was this had all the ingredients for the sell on news phenomenon as seen in Figure 5.

- you start with the double serving of disclosures and trading halt
- a generous serving of gap up. about 8%

- add in a sprinkle of increased volume. More or less 6M shares worth in the opening minutes
- and finally a dash of adrenaline and danger for those who got too excited and would buyup

It hit the next identified resistance in the monthly which was 2.6 and went crashing down.



 Figure 5

After watching everything crash and burn in the early morning I waited for things to settle down. As usual, I made plans and identified the potential bounce areas where I would wait. 

Went and took a nap as well.

Woke up at about 1030 earth time and was pleasantly surprised to see that the price seemed to be holding very well(Figure 6). Switched plans to buy at the unchanged or near it.      


 Figure 6

And the rest was history (Figure 7).

 Figure 7

Wasn't able to sell at the highs though. My schedule right now is causing me a lot of problems. But I was able to salvage a good enough gain. 



Ms Market will always reward those that can make flexible plans. Those that can make changes on the fly and execute them. Opportunities are still out there. It knocks on the doors of those that prepare. Are you prepared?


6.07.2018

Q&A: Bear market

I've gotten several PMs asking what I did during the past couple of months. In the real world and in the PSE. 

For the whole latter part of May I took a break from the market. A well deserved vacation with the family right before the little one starts school again. Always a good idea to recharge and get back to your WHYs. 

In the PSE, it was more of the same. After looking at the charts when I got back, I didn't miss much.


The general sense of weakness is still prevailing. Dozens of stocks hitting 52 week lows. iZS and iAOTS galore. 

So what's the best strategy during this time?

- Take some time off. Maybe this is Ms Market's way of telling you to recharge.

- Do some practice trades on unfamiliar setups. There are so many possible divergence or downtrend setups to work on. 

- Or even take up a new hobby!

- For part time traders, get a sideline or do well at work. 

- You can even try looking at other markets or alternatives. There is a whole other world out there. The PSE is just one market out of dozens.

Crypto. US/HK/China/SG/European market. FOREX. 

Here's something I told the current proj seed batch when they asked if I changed how I filter or choose stocks right now. 


Again, you don't need to trade just for the sake of trading. That is foolishness. We should be able to survive during bull and bear seasons. If limiting your trades to protect your capital is your strategy for now, then do it. 

If there are others showing green ports during this time, do not be pressured. You don't know their journey. Maybe their system is more on buy on support or purely momentum based. This is their market. Their time to shine.

Your time will come. Remember that.

Your. 

Time.

Will. 

COME. 

and when it does you have to be ready to take advantage. 

3.23.2018

A trifecta of bounces

This was certainly a week to remember. I scored a rare triple hit combo.



So many successful and profitable bounce plays. Where do I start? Maybe with the one that failed.

March 19

I was with my family at the airport waiting for our flight. I spotted MoneyGrowers plotting and saw the chart of MRC with the massive drop. I remembered the potential bounce areas since I finished reviewing earlier that morning and just placed some bids which were hit at the close. Boarded the plane feeling content even if it closed a little lower than my aep which was a little over 57 cents. Wasn't too bothered by it because only my initial tranches were hit.


March 20

The day started out bad since I had to cut my positions when MRC tanked in the early hours of the morning. On to the next stock on my watchlist then. 

NOW was number two on my watchlist since it was well into it's second consecutive 20% drop. 

Remember, massive drops = massive bounces. So at about 10am in the morning it hit my identified support areas. Darvas + Fibo 78.6.




I watched the support hold and started placing my tranch buys. The next 45 minutes went by quickly. The price held and was starting to creep upwards. By this time I was already at full allocation with both ports. 



This time, the waiting game begins. I wanted to see if it could clear the 50ma and hold above that maybe sometime after lunch. But the bulls were too strong and pushed it all the way over the 50ma and into a nice green candle by lunchtime. 



This prompted me to believe that this was a good ODR play. I only needed to watch it until closing to make sure that 10 would hold. Why 10? It was a good round number and would make it easy to put a stop on it. Plus the fact that I already have a good profit if I sell there. In the afternoon session, 10 was broken but I was able to sell all my shares around that area. Not bad for a couple hours holding time. 



But wait, that day wasn't done yet!

I looked back at MRC but I already missed the optimal buying window so I had to go to the last stock on my watchlist. 


PXP. 

The drop wasn't as violent as NOW or MRC but it was behaving very well. At about 245pm, it was hovering over two support areas, the 100ma and the Fibo 78.6. 



Those two points stated above led me to believe that this could have found a recent bottom. I proceeded to set my initial tranches and even bought some more near the close. For these kinds of bounce plays, the key for me is to watch the opening the next day if there is strength. 

March 21

Unlike the day before, this day started out pretty promising. PXP made a gap up and seemed to be gathering some strength before making a push to break the 50ma. So far so good right? 



Then the price went bananas in the next 15 minutes. Buyup after buyup. As with NOW, I made a stop of 13. 



Same reasons, same concept. For me any sell above the price of 12 was already considered a bonus. And it was a pretty sizable bonus even if I didn't put it my whole allocation.



After these two massive trades, I was ready to call it a week. I did one final scan and was intrigued by another stock that was crashing big time. 

VUL.

This setup was actually a first for me since I've never traded it with actual money before. Just did paper trades and that's it. This was the reason for the lower allocation. So let's take a look at VUL. 



What made it special was that after it's massive move, it never made any significant bounce yet. That 3/8 candle was a fake and unfortunately trapped more people. It just kept breaking down from all the significant MAs. Now on this particular afternoon, it was making a small cute candle and it reminded me so much of the SSI trade of I think Zee last 11/17/15. Go check it out. You're back? Good. 

So I placed my orders and got it just before the close. Again, the wait for the next day's open begins. 

March 22

The open started strong enough. A small gap. Then before 10am it blasted all the way above 80 cents which was the over the high of the previous day. That just means that the bounce is well on it's way!



My initial target was the reverse Fibo 23.6 levels. But judging by the move and the board, it looked like it would have difficulty reaching that level. This was the reason for me to sell at the levels that I did. 



And this ends my short and detailed walk-through on my bounce trades this week. I'm sure some would ask if I felt remorse or regret that I sold at the levels I did since the prices still went up after my selling. I was happy with all my selling. Profit is still a profit. 

And bounce trades are very tricky, sometimes all it takes is just one person to do a sagasa sell and like a house of cards, everything will fall apart faster than the blink of an eye.