Greener pastures

After a couple weeks of ecstasy in January, the PSE has been in stuck in a rut for the most part of the 1st quarter of 2019.

Since I missed most of those plays in the early part of the year, due to either my schedule, not my setup or just plain missing them altogether, my port has hardly made a dent for now. Uptrends have been scarce and sometimes it feels like it's not worth the time to check the charts. 

Personally, I do not subscribe to the idea that good traders should be able to trade in any market condition. Especially since we always tell people to be specialists. If your specialty is on uptrends and there aren't any, then why force yourself to trade downtrends? The effort or ROI just isn't worth it.

Maybe the problem isn't you. It's the MARKET. So what can uptrend or breakout traders do?

SWITCH MARKETS.

This is exactly what I have been doing the past couple of months. The US market has beckoned and who am I to say no? The tricky part has been in finding the right balance of spending too much or not enough time in charting the US stocks. Lately though, it looks like I've been able to crack that puzzle and find that happy balance. 

Trading the US market takes a pretty big leap of faith. But they have more options for people who aren't in front of the screen the whole time. A wide variety of orders not found in the PSE. To cater for every one. Currently, my system consists of waking up 30 minutes before the end of the US trading day to look for positions to trade. So essentially buying EOD. Then just a matter of setting stops during the evening of that day (market open in the US). That's it. It takes me about an hour at most from scanning to executing trades. 

Here is my port performance since the start of the year. Not bad for a couple minutes of trading a day. Let's see if I can hit all my milestones this year. 

Time to get to work. 

* I use interactive brokers. If you want a referral send me a PM.
I could make an FAQ about the US market and my broker in the future. If I don't feel lazy.

Q&A: Bear market

I've gotten several PMs asking what I did during the past couple of months. In the real world and in the PSE. 

For the whole latter part of May I took a break from the market. A well deserved vacation with the family right before the little one starts school again. Always a good idea to recharge and get back to your WHYs. 

In the PSE, it was more of the same. After looking at the charts when I got back, I didn't miss much.

The general sense of weakness is still prevailing. Dozens of stocks hitting 52 week lows. iZS and iAOTS galore. 

So what's the best strategy during this time?

- Take some time off. Maybe this is Ms Market's way of telling you to recharge.

- Do some practice trades on unfamiliar setups. There are so many possible divergence or downtrend setups to work on. 

- Or even take up a new hobby!

- For part time traders, get a sideline or do well at work. 

- You can even try looking at other markets or alternatives. There is a whole other world out there. The PSE is just one market out of dozens.

Crypto. US/HK/China/SG/European market. FOREX. 

Here's something I told the current proj seed batch when they asked if I changed how I filter or choose stocks right now. 

Again, you don't need to trade just for the sake of trading. That is foolishness. We should be able to survive during bull and bear seasons. If limiting your trades to protect your capital is your strategy for now, then do it. 

If there are others showing green ports during this time, do not be pressured. You don't know their journey. Maybe their system is more on buy on support or purely momentum based. This is their market. Their time to shine.

Your time will come. Remember that.

Your. 

Time.

Will. 

COME. 

and when it does you have to be ready to take advantage. 

HOPE as a strategy

Such a simple word. But it can trigger such a mess of human emotions. 

A fresh start. 

A better outlook. 

A new beginning. 

A chance for a new day. 

Sounds so nice and dandy. All sunshine and rainbows. Well, sorry to burst your bubble, but it's not all that. 

HOPE 

It can also sometimes bring the worst out of humans.

Just remember, HOPE should never be applicable to the stock market. For this is not the place for your emotions. You have to be very objective in your buying and selling. Stick to your plan and execute. Hope should never be a strategy. For here, only the charts are your friend. 

Art of War: the 300

Given the current state of the market, it looks like it will be a tough 2016 for all. The recent breakdown of the support is a major red flag that everyone should be aware of. 

Money can still be made, but it might not be as easy as in recent years. Buying the dip strategy might not work anymore since it could turn into catching falling knives, swords, axes etc.

Sometimes it is best to know when to stop first and look for alternative strategies. Turn off the breakout mindset and switch on the bounce play techniques. 

Don't have a long term view. 
Cut your losses to be able to fight another day. 
Protect your capital.

For now, all upticks in price should be viewed as short term rallies or chances to get out or just quickie moves.

Hey, even the spartans knew that they were fighting a losing battle. Imagine yourselves as the 300 spartans. You have the better fighters but you are up against an army of millions.

When faced with such a formidable foe, they didn't face them head on but resorted to guerrilla tactics. They made the persian army fight them by their rules. Quick strikes. 

In the end, even after all their efforts, they knew that they were just stalling. That they just had to hold their ground. Waiting for the reinforcements or for their army to come. 

Now think of your capital as the spartans. The persian army as the ongoing selling force. Your capital can't make the selling force stop. It can't. But you can still have small wins here and there. All you have to do is to weather the storm. Hold the line, try not to lose too much capital. You're stalling until the reversal comes. When the bulls come back. 

And that is the time to go all in. 

The Simple Art of Doing Nothing

For the past few days there has been zero activity in my port. No trades at all. Maybe just paper trades or trades in theory. But actual ones, NONE. 

This is because of two things:

1) my hit rate for bounce plays is still not up to standard and though this seems to be the ideal time to test bounce plays, something tells me that bounce plays will not be normally strong during this time.

2) I have been trying to follow one of the stock mantras of our mentor, Kapitan Kidlat, who told us: 

go for easy trades. don't waste time trading hard trades.

This I am trying to apply and hardcode into my neural networks. If it is taking me more than a couple minutes to scan and analyze a stock and it's chart I would have to pass on it. 

In my previous versions, my cyborg unit would have probably made at least 5 trades during the same period of time. And it would probably burned through some more of the precious capital in the port. The need to make a trade just for the sake of trading is slowly being eradicated thanks to our system.

Think of it as alien robot zen. There will be a time for trading, when this has passed. And then we shall have our revenge. 

Just Play Dead

To all those watching the ticker today.