Investa cup Week 3-5

For the past few weeks, life has caught up to me a bit. Been busy handling some stuff for business and the little robot's school. This has caused me to lose a bit of focus on the investacup. 

Then VUL happened as well. Since it was an all time high breakout (Figure 1), I made sure to have shares in my real port as well. 

Figure 1

Everything looked ready for a good, nice uptrend. Was thinking that it could follow the ATN script where it was wicky and weak before the ATH break but after the ATH breakout it would transition into a monster. 

However, Ms Market had other plans and gave a big steaming pile of crap the next day (Figure 2) 

Figure 2

Since I was too focused on my real port during this breakdown, I made sure to sell my shares there first before even remembering my VUL shares in my investacup port. Sold most of them at the lows. Awesome job to me. YEY!

A couple of other bone headed moves trading all time lows like CHP, CLC torpedoed my ranking.

Was already thinking of calling it quits sometime during week 5, but I wanted to give it another shot. I recalled the reason why I was doing the competition, which was to grade myself against other traders while trading mostly downtrending stocks. What better way to do paper trading then during a bear market right? 

So back to the grind it was. 

The thing that most people fail to realize about trading is that it gets repetitive after some time. It's all about doing the same thing, again and again and again. You can do multiple trades using the same setup. No need to overcomplicate things. 

Case in point, this setup that presented itself with X (Figure 3). It's looked almost exactly the same to the previous two CHP trades I had. 

Figure 3

The natural progression for me after collecting data on a particular setup, is to trade it with small volume. This will help to give me a feel of the trade with real money. The ultimate goal of course, is to move from small volume to real trading with conviction volume. Conviction volume doesn't necessarily mean all ins, it just means that there is enough meat to the trade that it would justify you doing all that studying and learning for it to actually make a dent in your portfolio. Otherwise, what is the point in studying that particular setup at all? 

So anyway, X was able to boost my investa ranking again (Figure 4) but I failed to take into consideration one of the new rules in the competition. 

Figure 4

And that was you are only allowed two sells to a particular stock when it is less than PHP3 in value. Long story short, my supposed intraday bounce trade for X got stuck (Figure 5). 

Figure 5
No choice but to watch it fall and hold on. Again, even more awesome job to me! DOUBLE YEY!

Ranking after week 5. 

It should have been somewhere in the 80s if the proper cut on my current X position but that's what I get for not being too focused on the rules. So I'm back to Milestone 1. Here's to another two months of the competition. 


Investacup recap Week 3

Obviously the story of the week was $NOW.

From a high of 8.15, it fell all the way to 4.11. Then it gave several wonderful bounce plays in between. Within the tribe, there were numerous people who benefited from the volatility. Even in the investacup competition itself, there were people jumping ranks by the hundreds! For sure those contenders were able to ride the massive bounce plays. Kudos to everyone for being able to ride the waves!

Personally, I was not able to maximize the NOW bounce since I was away from the keyboard on both times that the bounces were materializing. When I got back to the computer, the price was already above the optimal buy point for me. So I just let it go and looked for something else.

Remember, the stock market is not like Pokemon. You don't have to catch them all. You can afford to let some of them go. 

With that in mind, my system selected several other stocks that were also ripe for bounces but would theoretically move in a much more controlled manner. When I say more controlled, the move wasn't supposed to be moving up and down 5-10% in a matter of minutes. Too much excitement for a virtual competition. My stock picks for the week were SECB, MWIDE and again, CHP. 

This week, I'll be focusing on CHP. AGAIN.

For some strange reason, it gave the exact same pattern during the morning of 10/12 (Figure 1).

Figure 1

Could it give the same result? Looks like it for now. We shall see what happens next week. I've placed my position (1.98 buying) and possible target prices (Figure 2). Those target prices are just there for my reference. I'm already prepared in case they don't reach them. Make your own plans.

Figure 2

Ranking after week 3. 

Milestone 1 achieved --> Don't be in the negative. 
Milestone 2 achieved -- > Be in the top 100.

Dare I try to reach Milestone 3? Be in the top 50?

The tricky part though is making sure that I don't go down in rank too much. EVERYTHING gets tougher from here on out. For sure all the traders in the upper echelon of the competition are all in a class by themselves. Just being in the top 100 is a win already in my books. 


Investacup recap Week 2

The dynamics of the current competition is vastly different from the first Investacup competition. The first season had numerous uptrending stocks. Buy on breakouts, trend following was the name of the game.

This season the main theme is bounces. Everywhere you look there are downtrends galore. So it's more on buying on supports and bounces. It might be a downer for people but if we take it for what it is, it is an incredible opportunity to practice bounce plays. 

This week, let's focus on one particular trade:

CHP bounce

For this trade, I refer to one of boss Zee's previous trades (Figure 1). SSI 11/2015. 

Figure 1

That trade of his has always fascinated my processors because of it's execution and the percentage gained. So this pattern has been burned into my core memory and I swore to trade it everytime I see it. 

Enter CHP on Sept 28.

It made a similar cute candle after a strong downtrend. I entered near the close and identified two parameters seen in Figure 1. The TARGET and the CUT prices. Most people only create the former and forget about the latter. Rookie mistakes. 

Figure 2

The next day started out slowly. The price was hovering from 2.42-2.48 the whole day. Not bad if it was going to mimic the SSI pattern. As long as it closed above the close of 9/28 I would have been happy. 

But something peculiar happened. 

Right near the close at around 3pm, buying pressure suddenly increased and the price skyrocketed until the close. It closed at 2.7 just a few flucs away from my 1st target (Figure 3). 

I did a little quick math and thought that 2.7 was near enough to my target price and the way that the price moved during the close unnerved me a little. So I sold everything just to be on the safe side. The risk/reward wasn't worth it anymore. 

Figure 3

Since this was a virtual competition, it was easy to sell everything at the close. 

CHP helped a lot in boosting my ranking from negative to positive again. I had a couple of failed bounces again during the week but that's the way bounce plays go. 

Ranking after week 2.

Milestone 1 achieved --> Don't be in the negative. 
Here's to hoping I reach Milestone 2. Be in the top 100.